The last two parts (1, 2) of this series focused on a north-south bus north of Market, but we never laid out the remainder of its journey further south. I think there are two major strategies for such a route—bring it into a major connection point or continue with the north-south gridline. What would these look like?
The most easily accessible major connection point is 3rd & 20th, with connections to the T, 22, and 48. With such a design, this route would effectively be participating in a secondary downtown radial pattern along with these routes. The T brings people in from the north and south, the 22 from the west and far northwest, and the 48 from the southwest. This bus would then bring people in from between the 22 and the T. This is even more prominent once the T is sent through the Central Subway.
If we were to do this, land use at the nexus would need to support this anchoring of many frequent lines. Mission Bay is nearby, but the neighborhood is somewhat concerned about its expansion southward. The area is already zoned “urban mixed use” (UMU), which is a conversion from old industrial land use types to support more residential and commercial development. Think lofts built in old warehouses with ground-floor retail, and the like. While we like mixed use zoning, most of the parcels in this area have height limits of between 40 and 68 feet. This does not allow for very much density, and surely would not be able to support a second radial pattern. Perhaps the new Warriors stadium will provide the Planning Commission with a reason to raise the height limits in the area, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. Given that the T and 22 are such high-frequency and high-capacity lines and we plan to add another one, we’d probably want to raise height limits to at least 100 feet to take advantage of this. The AHBP might have been useful to provide taller buildings with more affordable housing in the area. While raising the height limits is a possibility, it is a remote one and we might be overserving this area quite a bit in the meantime.
If we were to continue the gridline to the south, we have a perfectly nice candidate already available—the 19-Polk! Given that the 19 is already bracketed by this bus and the 47/49, all of which are designed to be more frequent, we can scrap the 19 and use its southern leg for this bus instead, which leads to an increase in service for those riders. Since the 19 hits Market so close to where this bus would, it seems duplicative to try and fit an extra gridline in Potrero Hill, and we would probably have to introduce some confusing hopscotch to serve 6th St instead of 8th. This isn’t ideal because 6th St doesn’t cross over into Potrero like 7th and 8th do, but 8th St would be overserved if we ran both this bus and the 19 on it.
SFMTA’s Muni Forward plan has a number of service changes planned which, if implemented, change the calculus for the two options outlined above. Under the proposed changes, there will be a lot of rerouting on the east side. The 9R-San Bruno Rapid has added a stop in front of San Francisco General Hospital, so the 33-Ashbury/18th will no longer turn down Potrero Ave and go down to the hospital. Instead, riders will be expected to transfer at 16th St and take the 9R one stop south. The 33 will instead continue eastward and take over this current leg of the route for the 22-Fillmore, which uses 17th and 18th Sts to eventually end up at 3rd & 20th. The 22 will then be rerouted to use the current route of the 55-16th St, and serve Mission Bay. The 19 is also rerouted to serve SFGH under this plan, with the 48-Quintara/24th taking over its route to Hunter’s Point. A new 58-24th St will take over the eastern part of the 48’s route and go to 3rd & 20th.
This would break up the 3rd & 20th radial hub, as the frequent 22 is replaced with the less frequent 33, and the fairly frequent 48 is replaced with the infrequent new 58. Add all this to the zoning changes needed to maximize the benefit from creating this radial hub, and it looks like this option will not work for us in the long term.
On the other hand, replacing the 19 south of Market is still a good idea: our frequent gridline has an anchor (SFGH) and the route is fairly straight. Thus, our bus can take over for the 19 no matter how many of the Muni Forward recommendations are implemented.
This new route also has the advantage of getting rid of that confusing bit it encounters as it crosses over Cesar Chavez, although the route is shorter, so some riders will have to take the post-Muni Forward 48 to 23rd & De Haro or Rhode Island to get on the new bus. In any case, this is still better than the other option should the Muni Forward recommendations come to pass. The pain of making this connection will be ameliorated by the increase in frequency.
Overall I like rejiggering the 19 instead of creating an entirely new line, since I think it works better with the land use. The other option looks nicer from a network perspective, but it is viable only if Muni does not follow through on some of its proposed changes, and if we get some help from the city to upzone the 3rd & 20th area. In effect, this ends up being a change of the 19 route, which shouldn’t be such a big deal—Muni Forward is already full of big route changes!