The one-seat slowdown

In the article about the 19th Avenue Subway, I wrote briefly about the plans for the J to cover the portion of the M route in Ocean View (Randolph, Broad, and San Jose). Residents of Ocean View are now faced with a trade-off when trying to get downtown. They will experience a faster ride if they take the J to SFSU Station and transfer to long, fast M trains to continue inbound. However, some people are not happy about the loss of a reasonably quick one-seat ride, since their current route will be replaced with the J coming all the way around through Balboa Park. The J is going to spend a lot more time in mixed traffic than the M does currently, and so taking it downtown from Ocean View is likely to be a slow and unreliable ride. While we should think about what will keep the J reliable, we might also want to consider doing something else to mitigate the concerns of Ocean View residents.

Let’s take a look at the N. A large percentage of this route is at-grade, and getting from one end to the other is very slow. This sounds familiar! During commute hours, when subway space is limited and people from the forties need to get downtown in a reasonable amount of time, Muni runs an express route along this line. The NX-Judah Express aims to get people from further out to downtown quickly by skipping lots of stops in the middle and using faster one-way, timed-light roads where possible to keep the buses moving. Plenty of bus routes have matching express routes during commute hours. The 1-California and 38-Geary each have two express routes which use Bush and Pine to get downtown quickly. The 7X-Noriega Express uses Oak, Fell, Franklin, Gough, Golden Gate, and Turk. Express routes for the 8 and 14 use freeways. But most light rail lines do not need an express route since the subway generally obviates the need for them. To support a light rail express line, we need to be able to get people from far-flung areas onto fast roads and keep them there until we get close to downtown. With the J extension to SFSU, the line might become eligible for such treatment.

280 and 101 can be used to transport people express from the Glen Park areas to downtown more quickly than it would take to crawl all the way around and finally get into the subway. Stops between 19th Ave & Randolph St and San Jose Ave & Santa Rosa Ave would be serviced by the express bus, after which it would take 280 via Baden and either Circular Ave or Monterey Blvd. From there, it can get on 101 via the Alemany Maze interchange. The Central Freeway will allow the bus to exit on Mission to service Van Ness & Market. The bus can make normal J stops up Market from there. (Other designs might make different stops downtown or use a different route to get there, as the NX tries to serve the Financial District more specifically. I tried to make this serve existing downtown J/M stops as closely as possible.)

map

Now that the JX services stops up to Santa Rosa, we can turn around more J trains at Glen Park. This already happens during commute hours, but it’s rare, and with the JX to supplement service past Glen Park we will be able to get away with turning some trains around more quickly than we would be otherwise. This would help keep the route more reliable for residents further inbound on the route.

Of course, there are other concerns at play here. I don’t normally like introducing express buses, because they are an expensive proposition with regard to how much service they actually provide. Muni will be forced to increase its peak bus fleet to accommodate the extra commute-time load. The J station at Glen Park is somewhat confusing if trains are turning back there, since trains can’t cross over to the inbound track from the outbound side. I’m not sure how expensive installing this extra track would be. Furthermore, extremely heavy traffic on the freeways may mean the bus won’t save any time after all! However, if this idea gets more people on board with the 19th Avenue Subway by assuaging concerns over the reliability of the J and preservation of a somewhat quick one-seat ride to downtown from Ocean View, then I think it’s worth studying.

The Tenderloin gap, part III

The last two parts (12) of this series focused on a north-south bus north of Market, but we never laid out the remainder of its journey further south. I think there are two major strategies for such a route—bring it into a major connection point or continue with the north-south gridline. What would these look like?

The most easily accessible major connection point is 3rd & 20th, with connections to the T, 22, and 48. With such a design, this route would effectively be participating in a secondary downtown radial pattern along with these routes. The T brings people in from the north and south, the 22 from the west and far northwest, and the 48 from the southwest. This bus would then bring people in from between the 22 and the T. This is even more prominent once the T is sent through the Central Subway.

3rd-20th-option

If we were to do this, land use at the nexus would need to support this anchoring of many frequent lines. Mission Bay is nearby, but the neighborhood is somewhat concerned about its expansion southward. The area is already zoned “urban mixed use” (UMU), which is a conversion from old industrial land use types to support more residential and commercial development. Think lofts built in old warehouses with ground-floor retail, and the like. While we like mixed use zoning, most of the parcels in this area have height limits of between 40 and 68 feet. This does not allow for very much density, and surely would not be able to support a second radial pattern. Perhaps the new Warriors stadium will provide the Planning Commission with a reason to raise the height limits in the area, but I wouldn’t hold my breath for that. Given that the T and 22 are such high-frequency and high-capacity lines and we plan to add another one, we’d probably want to raise height limits to at least 100 feet to take advantage of this. The AHBP might have been useful to provide taller buildings with more affordable housing in the area. While raising the height limits is a possibility, it is a remote one and we might be overserving this area quite a bit in the meantime.

If we were to continue the gridline to the south, we have a perfectly nice candidate already available—the 19-Polk! Given that the 19 is already bracketed by this bus and the 47/49, all of which are designed to be more frequent, we can scrap the 19 and use its southern leg for this bus instead, which leads to an increase in service for those riders. Since the 19 hits Market so close to where this bus would, it seems duplicative to try and fit an extra gridline in Potrero Hill, and we would probably have to introduce some confusing hopscotch to serve 6th St instead of 8th. This isn’t ideal because 6th St doesn’t cross over into Potrero like 7th and 8th do, but 8th St would be overserved if we ran both this bus and the 19 on it.

19-option

Muni Forward

SFMTA’s Muni Forward plan has a number of service changes planned which, if implemented, change the calculus for the two options outlined above. Under the proposed changes, there will be a lot of rerouting on the east side. The 9R-San Bruno Rapid has added a stop in front of San Francisco General Hospital, so the 33-Ashbury/18th will no longer turn down Potrero Ave and go down to the hospital. Instead, riders will be expected to transfer at 16th St and take the 9R one stop south. The 33 will instead continue eastward and take over this current leg of the route for the 22-Fillmore, which uses 17th and 18th Sts to eventually end up at 3rd & 20th. The 22 will then be rerouted to use the current route of the 55-16th St, and serve Mission Bay. The 19 is also rerouted to serve SFGH under this plan, with the 48-Quintara/24th taking over its route to Hunter’s Point. A new 58-24th St will take over the eastern part of the 48’s route and go to 3rd & 20th.

This would break up the 3rd & 20th radial hub, as the frequent 22 is replaced with the less frequent 33, and the fairly frequent 48 is replaced with the infrequent new 58. Add all this to the zoning changes needed to maximize the benefit from creating this radial hub, and it looks like this option will not work for us in the long term.

On the other hand, replacing the 19 south of Market is still a good idea: our frequent gridline has an anchor (SFGH) and the route is fairly straight. Thus, our bus can take over for the 19 no matter how many of the Muni Forward recommendations are implemented.

19-option-muni-forward

This new route also has the advantage of getting rid of that confusing bit it encounters as it crosses over Cesar Chavez, although the route is shorter, so some riders will have to take the post-Muni Forward 48 to 23rd & De Haro or Rhode Island to get on the new bus. In any case, this is still better than the other option should the Muni Forward recommendations come to pass. The pain of making this connection will be ameliorated by the increase in frequency.

Overall I like rejiggering the 19 instead of creating an entirely new line, since I think it works better with the land use. The other option looks nicer from a network perspective, but it is viable only if Muni does not follow through on some of its proposed changes, and if we get some help from the city to upzone the 3rd & 20th area. In effect, this ends up being a change of the 19 route, which shouldn’t be such a big deal—Muni Forward is already full of big route changes!